As seen on The Daily Show, Ian Bremmer has a new book, which offers a rather intriguing theory – the J-Curve. If you’re like me, then it may be a while before you’ll have time to sit down and read it. In the meantime, Bremmer provides some insight with this article in the WaPo.
The theory conceives of international relations in terms of “stability” and “instability”, which flow in the shape of a “J”. The bottom curve indicates instability, where as the two higher points to the left and right mark stability. Authoritarian states are located on the left part of the J, whereas democracies are positioned on the right part, which is higher and therefore more stable. Accordingly, transition from authoritarian regimes to democracies and vice versa passes through the bottom curve of instability.
Additionally, authoritarian regimes thrive off of isolation. So, democracies should engage countries like Iran and North Korea, and refrain from giving them the cold shoulder they need to survive. The theory that engagement and openness hurts authoritarian regimes more than isolation is not new. In fact, many have previously noted how American openness towards Eastern Europe had much more effect than the isolationist approach towards Cuba. However, one interesting caveat arises towards the end of the article. Bremmer suggests that China is trying to beat the J-Curve by allowing for more economic openness while maintaining political authoritarianism. It’s quite a gamble, and I seriously doubt that one can juxtapose economic liberties from political and civil freedoms in such stark contrast for very long.
(Hat Tip Harry)
The theory conceives of international relations in terms of “stability” and “instability”, which flow in the shape of a “J”. The bottom curve indicates instability, where as the two higher points to the left and right mark stability. Authoritarian states are located on the left part of the J, whereas democracies are positioned on the right part, which is higher and therefore more stable. Accordingly, transition from authoritarian regimes to democracies and vice versa passes through the bottom curve of instability.
Additionally, authoritarian regimes thrive off of isolation. So, democracies should engage countries like Iran and North Korea, and refrain from giving them the cold shoulder they need to survive. The theory that engagement and openness hurts authoritarian regimes more than isolation is not new. In fact, many have previously noted how American openness towards Eastern Europe had much more effect than the isolationist approach towards Cuba. However, one interesting caveat arises towards the end of the article. Bremmer suggests that China is trying to beat the J-Curve by allowing for more economic openness while maintaining political authoritarianism. It’s quite a gamble, and I seriously doubt that one can juxtapose economic liberties from political and civil freedoms in such stark contrast for very long.
(Hat Tip Harry)
Labels: international relations
2 Comments:
J-Curve, is it?
V e r r y i n t e r e s t i n g.
A new concept learned. Ain't the 'Net GR8!?
I hope I rememember where I got this.
Thanks for stopping by.
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