Dennis Ross of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy offers some suggestions to the next President of the United States on how to address “the Pakistan paradox” (TNR). There are multiple layers of irony. It is no secret that Pakistani authorities often turned a blind eye to Taliban activity in the country’s border areas, namely the Waziristan region. Musharraf attempted to hedge his bets with conservative religious parties in these areas while cooperating the US and Nato allies. But the second twist is that the Awami National Party (ANP), which replaced Musharraf’s government in the last election, does not sympathize with al-Qaeda, opposing talks with the international terrorist organization. Rather, the ANP favours talking with local tribes.
So what is Ross’ advice?
So what is Ross’ advice?
One thing is for sure: There has been a change in Pakistan, and it is being driven by those who are emphasizing democratic processes and the rule of law. We should be on the right side of this. What's more, we have little choice. Pakistanis are moving in a direction that we cannot stop but should try to channel. That is common sense and good statecraft.
But as the Pakistanis make their decisions, they should also know that we have interests and stakes and will not be indifferent to what they do. Surely, for their own interests, they don't want those who employ terror and who are responsible for killing Benazir Bhutto to further entrench themselves. Separating the tribal groups from Al Qaeda and the Taliban is a strategy that could work if orchestrated effectively.
To be sure, the new Pakistani leadership might be tempted to cut a deal with Al Qaeda and the Taliban that would see them stop their attacks in Pakistan by permitting them to operate and plan attacks at our expense. We need to prevent that, and we probably can, if we are clear about our interests and needs. We should say that we will help provide financial and other means for their new strategy, assuming it is transparent. We should also repeat what Senator Barack Obama said last summer: If we get actionable intelligence about terror acts being prepared in these provinces of Pakistan and the Pakistanis won't act, we will.
Labels: armed conflict, foreign policy, Middle East, Pakistan, terrorism, USA
2 Comments:
Ross is a fantasist when he dreams of a Pashtu/Taliban "Awakening" against al-Qaeda. Seven years of Western occupation of Afghanistan isn't going to permit that to occur. Pashtun or Baloch, both see themselves as tribes inconveniently divided by a border they're barely willing to acknowledge.
What Ross suggests was a good idea - six or seven years ago. WE blurred the distinction between the Taliban and al-Qaeda in order to justify jumping into Afghanistan's civil war. There are real ramifications to that.
The Taliban aren't in the mood for making deals with us, even if they are brokered as Pakistani initiatives. That horse has left the barn.
Hi MOS,
I'm not sure that I follow your first comment about a Taliban "awakening" against al-Qaeda. I understood Ross' op-ed to be directed at how American foreign policy should adapt to the new ruling party of Pakistan (ANP).
Aside from that, I agree that the Nato and the US have sadly been behind the curve when it comes to Afghanistan. Iraq has been a terrible distraction.
However, I'm not sure whether taking Ross' advice is too little, too late. Without testing the waters, I think that it would be rather presumptuous to label it as a fruitless venture.
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